With European club football coming to a close, the focus now shifts to international football. The particular focus this week will be on the Nations League. This tournament will allow teams to showcase their talent and gain some momentum ahead of the Euro 2024 qualifiers.
Spain and Italy are two of the teams that will be looking to utilize this opportunity as they face off in the semi-final of the Nation’s League on Thursday. Both teams had a tough start to their Euro qualifying campaign, and a win here would not only give them a shot at an international trophy but will boost their confidence for their Euro qualifiers that lay ahead.
Spain parted ways with manager Luis Enrique after their World Cup exit at the hands of Morocco, and new boss Luis de la Fuente has taken charge since. He won his first Euro Qualifier convincingly by defeating Norway 3-0 but lost 2-0 to Scotland in the subsequent game, which saw them fall to second place in their Group.
Italy, on the other hand, have been struggling with their own problems. Roberto Mancini’s future hangs in the balance, with the Euro 2020 triumph giving him some leeway since his team failed to qualify for Qatar 2022. They have not done particularly well after December either, as they started this year with a 1-2 loss to England and now also sit second in their group. They did win 2-0 versus Malta and are yet to face North Macedonia and Ukraine, but a boost in confidence will no doubt help them before heading into those games.
While the Nations League might not be the most prestigious prize in Europe, it is still a trophy that teams would like to add to their cabinet. The winners of this game will face the winners of the Netherlands versus Croatia in the final on Sunday.
Spain vs Italy Tips
Three Italian clubs made it to the finals of the top three European club competitions this season. Despite finishing runner-up in all the finals, they gave it their all and only narrowly missed out on victories. As the focus shifts to the Italian national team, they have an opportunity to restore national pride, using the experiences from the European competitions as motivation and potentially go all the way in the Nations League.
Mateo Retegui has scored in each of his last two games for Italy, and with Federico Chiesa and Federico Dimarco returning to the side, we expect a dangerous attacking threat from Italy.
Alvaro Morata will be looking to cause problems for Italy from Spain’s end, but after having a mediocre season with Atletico Madrid, we don’t have much faith in him finding the back of the net. Marco Asensio and Rodri have been two players in exceptional form for their clubs this season, and they will likely be the stars of the show for Spain as well.
Odds for Mateo Retegui to score first: 8.8 on OrbitX
Spain vs Italy Match Analysis
Mancini’s tactical approach, focusing on organizing the midfield and defensive solidity with a blend of attacking flair, will likely be the dominant style of play in this game. Luis de la Fuente hasn’t been in charge long enough for us to get a good understanding of how he wants his team to play, but like the majority of Spanish managers, he does prefer possession-based football.
Italy will likely feature the same back three as Inter Milan, a group of players who made it to the finals of the UEFA Champions League with their solid performances, so we expect them to zone out the Spanish Forwards completely. This is arguably where the team’s strength lies.
When two powerhouses like Spain and Italy play each other, it’s often a tightly contested affair, with goals more likely to appear in the second half when players get tired. This trend is likely to continue in their upcoming match, as both teams will focus on avoiding mistakes early on and holding their ground for as long as they can.
Odds for the game to have under 1.5 goals: 2.936 Asian total on BLACK
Spain vs Italy Predictions
Roberto Mancini will be looking to take a step in the right direction towards his second international honor and join the list of elite teams in Europe to have won this competition. Italy finished third in the last version of the Nations League, and Spain finished second, but that was under Luis Enrique, who was widely acknowledged for his work with the young Spanish side back then.
Spain, in recent times, have put in some good performances against Spain, but they are going through a rebuilding process with their new coach and might not be able to cope with Italy’s experienced side.
Odds for Italy to advance to the final: 2.3 on OrbitX
We are expecting Italy to put a good show on and believe they are likely to walk away with victory. With a solid defense behind them, we think backing them to win 2-0 would be a reasonable bet. The result may ultimately be influenced by experience, an area in which Italy holds a significant advantage.
Odds for Italy to win 2-0: 20.559 on Black
Spain Team News and Squad
Spain have some big injury concerns as they go into the semi-final versus the Azzurri. Juan Bernat, who plays as a left-back for French Champions PSG, is expected to miss the game, having picked up an injury at the end of the season.
Real Madrid’s latest signing Francisco García has been called up to replace him, and he could make his debut for Spain against Italy. Attacking midfielder Dani Olmo is also in doubt, as there are reports of him struggling with muscular problems in Germany. Premier League’s Golden Glove winner David De Gea has also been out of favor in his national team and won’t be expected to take any part either.
Italy Team News and Squad
There is much more positive news coming in from Italy’s end when it comes to injuries, with some of their star players returning since their loss to England. Federico Chiesa and Federico Dimarco will both be available for their clash against La Furia Roja, two players that can definitely give their team a huge boost.
23-year-old Argentine-born striker Mateo Retegui who has 11 goals for his club Atletico Tigre was heavily involved in Italy’s last two games and will be expected to feature again in a main role for Roberto Mancini’s side. Italy does not have any major injury concerns, which might put them at an advantage, so we can expect them to feature a strong side.
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